The European Union (EU) is allegedly planning to conclude a defence agreement with Japan.[1] This agreement is expected to focus on naval exercises, intelligence sharing and cyber threats in the Asia-Pacific. This situation is expected to harm China’s relations with Europe in particular. It can be stated that the EU’s goal here is to increase its presence in the Indo-Pacific against China.
Beijing is trying to improve its political relations with Europe. But on the other hand, Europe continues to make military-security moves in China’s neighbourhood. Brussels published its Indo-Pacific strategy in 2021, which aims to strengthen defence ties with allies in the region. Over the last 5 years, European actors, including the UK, have expanded joint naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific and sought to strengthen defence ties with countries in the region, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Australia.
The fact that the EU has not yet developed a comprehensive and collective strategy for the Asia-Pacific negatively affects the interests of the United States of America (USA) in the region. In this context, the involvement of European countries in the US strategy of encircling China could lead to an irreversible deterioration of regional security dynamics. The fact that European countries, such as the UK and Italy, have signed military-security agreements with Japan in recent months means further pressure on China.
In recent years, Japan has been increasing its security co-operation with Western countries, especially with Russia and North Korea in mind. In addition to the fighter jet plan, it has strengthened defence coordination with the US and diversified its partnerships by signing new security agreements with the UK and Australia.
China has reacted sharply to moves by the United States and its allies to create an “Asia-Pacific NATO” that could disrupt regional peace and has increased defence coordination with Russia in response. Beijing has also repeatedly called on the EU to reject ” block confrontation” that could trigger a new Cold War.
Alliances between Western states in the Asia-Pacific are deepening. In particular, Japan is deepening its security co-operation with the UK, Italy and the US, as well as Canada. By concluding bilateral military agreements with each of the G7 countries, Japan could move towards building a security coalition in the Indo-Pacific under its leadership. Indeed, Japan’s Ministry of Defence focuses on potential crises in its immediate neighbourhood in its annual reports. The reports, which increasingly focus on Taiwan, also draw attention to the threats from Russia and North Korea. In this direction, it is seen that Japan is gradually moving away from its pacifist structure[2] and trying to expand the jurisdiction of the Self-Defence Units.
The Tokyo Government plans to increase the share of defence expenses in the budget to 2% in the next 5 years.[3] Indeed, since the Second World War, the country has allocated budgets ranging between 0.9% and 1.1% to defence. In fact, raising defence spending to 2% is similar to the limits set by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The fact that the 2% target will be reached in 2027 may be a sign that a new NATO will be established in the Asia-Pacific at that time.
This means that the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific could bring their defence spending to at least the level of NATO countries within five years, at which time they could consider establishing a defence alliance. Japanese officials argue that defence spending needs to increase because of growing regional risks and threats.
In order to attract the support of Europe, Japan is trying to support Ukraine more and show solidarity with the West in this sense. Due to the strengthening of these ties, Russia suspended the peace talks with Japan. Moscow cited Tokyo’s participation in the Western sanctions on Ukraine and its hostile behaviour as the reason for this. With the complete breakdown of dialogue with Russia, Japan has increased its support for Ukraine in a more integrated manner with the West.
Tokyo signed a defence pact with Europe because of the potential security challenges it faces in its immediate neighbourhood. In the long term, Japan expects support from the West in the face of these risks, and in response, it is giving more support to Ukraine. For example, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that Europe’s security is closely linked to the Far East,[4] in these words, he actually reminded Japan of the security threats it faced and asked for its support. NATO could offer Japan certain security-protection guarantees in return for support for Ukraine. If Japan does not adequately support Ukraine today, it may not receive the assistance it needs from the West in the Asia-Pacific in the near future.
[1] “Europe looks to Japan for defence pact amid ‘worrying shift’ in regional dynamic”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3256162/europe-looks-japan-defence-pact-amid-worrying-shift-regional-dynamic?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage, (Access Date: 21.03.2024).
[2] “Japan has abandoned decades of pacifism in response to Ukraine invasion and increased Chinese pressure on Taiwan”, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/japan-has-abandoned-decades-of-pacifism-in-response-to-ukraine-invasion-and-increased-chinese-pressure-on-taiwan-225098, (Access Date: 21.03.2024).
[3] “Japan Set to Hike Defense Budget Amid Ongoing Tension in Region”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/japan-set-to-hike-defense-budget-amid-ongoing-tension-in-region/2751777, (Access Date: 21.03.2024).
[4] Ibid.
